| Jul. 16th, 2009 @ 12:14 am Week 14 Wrap-Up/First Half Review |
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Current Location: Cubdom
Current Mood: Hmm...
BRIEF WEEK 14 WRAP-UP
Cubs lose two of three to the Braves at home. Wells won game one versus Jurgens. Lee had a two-run shot. The loss against Vasquez was excusable, as he was throwing great, but the Kawakami game was, literally, a comedy of errors. Fox and Kosuke both had fielding errors. Hart pitched okay, but walked too many (five in five).
Cards came to Wrigley Friday for four. Teams split 2-2. Cubs lost the first game when Bad Harden showed up and got shelled. Uncle Ted got the win Saturday. Good game for him, the 100th win of his career. Cubs put up three in the first and never looked. back. The double-header Sunday started off well, with Z winning game one. Hoff hit a three-run shot in the 1st, and Z added a solo shot in the 4th. The nightcap didn't go as well, with the Cubs losing to Wainwright. Thus the first half ended like the Cardinals series, with Cubs at .500.
Only major roster move was putting Soto on the DL and recalling Fuld from AAA. Soto will be out for about a month with a strained oblique. Just another injury for the team to deal with.
FIRST HALF REVIEW
Two terms can sum up the Cubs first half of the 2009 season; injuries and under-performance. The only two offensive starters who are meeting expectations are Theriot and Lee. The bench has been fluid, with all the injuries and such. As for the rotation, Lilly and Z are holding their own, though Wells has been a pleasant, and needed, surprise. Demp's been okay, but hurt himself trying to jump out of the dugout after a win. He truly is a Cub. The pen has been erratic, though Gregg has been solid after an awful April. Marmol has been terrifying at times. Overall, a very disappointing first half considering what was expected for this squad.
REGULARS
DLee - .280/.354/.511 with 17HR, 57RBI, 40R. Lee's only grounded into four DP's this season, a huge improvement over last season when he had twenty-seven. He started slow (.189/.253/.284 in April), but has played great since (.313/.403/.552 in May, .333/.417/.556 in June). He's still "The Man" on the North Side, though he could use some help. It seems his neck is still bothering him a little, so he might be getting the extra day or two off during the second half. He might very well be the reason the Cubs are at .500 right now. He's the only reliable power bat in the lineup.
Riot - .299/.354/.423 with 7HR, 30RBI, 48R, 10/15SB. Solid performance from Riot thus far. He's even playing solid defense (UZR 3.3, which is slightly better than average). More pop, less walk this season, but Cubs fans really have no reason to complain. Riot is playing well. Arguably the best regular starter after Lee.
A-Ram - .333/.375/.500 with 4HR, 17RBI, 10R in 90AB. He missed fifty games with a separated shoulder, and the lineup suffered. Hopefully he'll be able to play at his usual level of excellence in the second half.
Fontenot - .230/.307/.358 with 6HR, 28RBI, 22R. Okay, he's not a regular player. He sucks hard against lefties (.200/.227/.300), though he's not that much better against righties (.236/.322/.369). He did get pressed into playing third, which didn't help his defense or bat. He'll see spot starts the rest of the season, mainly at second, with Baker and Blanco taking some of his playing time.
Soto - .230/.336/.396 with 8HR, 27RBI, 19R in 217AB. He missed time early-on with a bum shoulder, and recently went back on the DL with a strained oblique. He had a horrid April (.109/.268/.130), but had been playing much better lately (.257/.349/.568 in June). He'll be back in early August, so let's hope for the best.
Sori - .233/.298/.413 with who the fuck cares, he sucks! Seriously, something has to be wrong with his knee, because very few ballplayers fall off a cliff like this. He had a nice April (.284/.364/.591), followed by a crappy May (.216/.261/.396), and a horrific June (.198/.274/.311). Something is wrong. Sad thing is, he's signed thru 2014 at $18M per. If he doesn't pull out of this hitting rut, this could turn out to be the worst contract in MLB history. If he gets back to normal, he could carry the team to the post-season.
Fukie - .251/.367/.421 with 7HR, 27RBI, 38R. Once again, Kosuke had a huge start to the season (.338/.461/.592 in April), but faded quickly (.169/.266/.241 in 96AB in June) since. His defense is good (1.9UZR in CF), so at least he's got that. He needs to learn how to make adjustments to MLB pitching as the season goes on, or he's going to swing wildly against lefties forever.
Milton - .243/.379/.381 with 6HR, 21RBI, 28R. Hendry's huge off-season acquisition has, largely, been a bust. Sad thing is, Bradley can't blame injuries on his struggles. Or meltdowns. Or personal issues. He's just sucked. Kind of the last thing us Cubs fans expected from him. Yeah, he's been dinged a little, but he's had 210AB in 71G. No excuses, he's stunk. Maybe he can turn it around, we'll see.
BENCH
Jake Fox - .313/.356/.550 in 80AB. A lefty power bat that can play multiple defensive positions (3B, OF, emergency catcher). None of them very well, but he can play them. Not an everyday player, but a valuable bench guy. He's .417/.462/.583 in 12AB as a pinch-hitter this season. Small sample size sure, but I'd take my chances with him coming off the bench in the 8th. Think of him as a neanderthal version of DeRosa who's still evolving.
Reed "Motherfucking" Johnson - .254/.321/.424 in 118AB. He's doing okay, even with a trip to the DL. Problem with Reed is that Lou isn't using him properly. He has a .222/.278/.375 line in 72AB against RHP, but a .304/.385/.500 line in 46AB versus LHP. I'm sure Lou's had to use him more often than he's liked, considering all the injuries, but Ninja should be used exclusively against lefties. He crushes them. Platoon him and Kosuke (.174/.286/.348 in 23AB versus LHP) in CF, and things will be fine.
Koyie Hill - .213/.300/.315 in 89AB. You have to love The Claw's dedication and hustle, but he's just not a very good ballplayer. With Soto hurt, again, the Cubs could use more production from Hill.
Micah Hoffpauir - .244/.287/.449 in 156AB. Hot start (.303/.333/.545 in April), cooled off (.182/.200/.386 in June). He still has value, just not as much as many of us thought. Pinch-hitter/day off for Lee should be his role from here on out.
Andres Blanco - .222/.276/.272 in 81AB. All glove, no bat. He's a good glove to have on the bench since he can play good defense at SS and 2B. Best option the Cubs have for a backup infielder (You heard me, Miles.).
Bobby Scales - .241/.333/.466 in 56AB. Great story and all, but he's a marginal MLB player, at best. Bring him back up in September when the rosters expand.
Aaron Miles - .203/.240/.260 in 123AB. The numbers speak for themselves. The less said about him the better. Best thing he did for the team all season was to get hurt and go on the DL. He needs to stay there, one way or another.
Jeff Baker just came over, so who knows what he'll do other than satisfy Hendry's fetish for middle infielders.
ROTATION
Ted Lilly - 9-6, 3.18ERA, 18GS, 119.0IP, 101K, 24BB. The man of the rotation this season. He's turned into a really great signing for the Cubs.
Heavy Z - 5-4, 3.53ERA, 16GS, 102IP, 82K, 43BB. He's pitching right around his career numbers (3.42ERA, 1.89 K/BB ratio (1.91 this season)), so...I'm not sure. I guess I always expect 2004 Z to show up (2.75ERA, 2.32 K/BB ratio), but this season is a pretty accurate representation of his ability. Shouldn't complain, but those damn walks are getting annoying.
Randy Wells - 4-4, 2.72ERA, 12GS, 76IP, 53K, 17BB. Wells has an argument for MVC of the first half. He's arguably been the best starter in the rotation since being called up. He didn't just fill in when Z and Harden went on the DL, he forced the team to put him in the rotation full-time after Z and Harden returned. I have no idea what to expect during the second half, but I have high hopes. He doesn't walk many batters and keeps the ball in the park (7HR surrendered on the season, though two were in his last start), two things important for success in the majors (pay attention, Harden). He gets lots of ground balls and can get a K when he needs to. Everything is there for continued success.
Ryan Dempster - 5-5, 4.09ERA, 105.2IP, 89K, 44BB. Not bad so far, and he had a really nice June (3.23ERA, 6GS, 30.2IP), except for the W-L record (0-2, he must have inherited whatever was jinxing Wells from getting a win early on). He's had family issues, which have greatly improved, so we might see a better, and more relaxed, Dempster in the second half. When he gets healthy, that is.
Rich Harden - 5-6, 5.47ERA, 74IP, 83K, 36BB. WTF happened to this guy? His ERA has increased from 1.77 in 12GS in 2008 (as a Cub) to 5.47 in 14GS this season. You'd think it was the walks (36 in 74IP this season), but it's really not (30 in 71IP last season as a Cub). His hits surrendered has literally doubled from 39 to 78. Among the 78 hits are 16HR, up from 6HR last season as a Cub. He's still striking out batters (83 this season versus 89 last season), so things aren't all bad. Still, Rothschild needs to figure out why batters are teeing-off on harden this season, especially at home. He's been awful at Wrigley (7.59ERA in 42.2IP), but great on the road (2.59ERA in 31.1IP). Tipping his pitches? Something is wrong.
BULLPEN
Sean Marshall - 3-6, 4.01ERA, 29G, 8GS, 60.2IP, 41K, 22BB. He's been much better as a reliever (1.65ERA in 16.1IP) than a starter 4.87ERA, 44.1IP). With Cotts suckage and injury and Wells' great pitching, Marshall should spend the second half in the pen, where he looks to be really good. He can also spot-start. He's got a lot of versatility, which should come in handy.
Kevin Gregg - 3-2, 16/19 SV, 3.32ERA, 40.2IP, 41K, 16BB. We have to admit it; he's pitched well for the Cubs. He's improved his ERA each month (5.59-3.86-2.77). Not coincidentally, his hit and walk numbers have decreased each month as well. And he's only blown three saves. He's been more-and-more reliable as the season has progressed. His numbers this season look similar to his 2007 line with the Marlins. 3.54ERA and 32SV. Not too shabby, and his walks per nine is almost a full walk better this season. I like where Gregg is headed this season. He still makes you sweat, but he gets the job done.
Carlos Marmol - 2-1, 3.64ERA, 42IP, 46K, 42BB. More walks this season than all of last season (41). It's all control, as his hits are still down (24, batters are hitting .169/.380/.261 against him), and he's only given up 1HR (10HR last season). He also has 7HBP and 4WP already (six of each last season). His problem is finding the strike zone, usually with his fastball. Mental, release point, minor injury? Who knows, but something is wrong. Rothschild has a lot of work to do.
Angel Guzman - 2-1, 2.60ERA, 34.2IP, 28K, 11BB. Outside of a stint on the DL, Guzman's been great. finally realising his role on the team after all those years of minor league ball, surgeries, and rehab. Lou trusts him, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him move into the setup role if Marmol continues to be wild.
Aaron Heilman - 2-3, 4.32ERA, 41.2IP, 34K, 27BB. Blech. Middle inning or mop-up work only at this point.
David Patton - 3-1, 5.62ERA, 24IP, 20K, 15BB. What was Hendry thinking?!? Patton's a good kid and all, but a Rule 5 pick has no place on a team that is built to try to go to the WS. It basically turns the 25-man roster into a 24-man roster since the Rule 5 guy can't be moved anywhere except the DL. Patton's there now, and hopefully he's injured enough to stay there the rest of the season. He's got good stuff, but needs work, mainly in the minors.
Cotts gets a brief mention, about how much he sucked. At least he has a bum elbow to blame it on. Hart has recently joined the ML roster, and will stay there until Dempster returns, probably early August. Don't expect a Wells-like performance, but he should be okay. BPJ us also back up, doing some mop-up work. We'll see how he's progressed. Ascanio had flashes of brilliance scattered amongst flashes of throwing batting practice. I like his potential, but he needs work in AAA right now. Might see him in September. Stevens was called up (one of the guys who came over in the DeRo trade), but I don't expect much.
MVC: MOST VALUABLE CUB OF THE FIRST HALF
Ted Lilly. 9-6, 3.18ERA, 119.0IP, 101K, 24BB, 17HR. Also was the only Cub to make the All-star team this season. Lee made this a race with his hot June, but Lilly's been good all season. He's been the rock of the rotation. No missed starts, no stretch of bad starts, just consistently good. He went only 5.0IP in starts twice in April, and hasn't gone less than 6.0IP in any start since. The only knock is the HR rate, though four of those were on opening day (By comparison, he had five HR surrendered in 40.1IP in June.). He gives up a few too many dingers, but it's not that bad overall. Someone get that man a plate of cornbread. Extra golden and buttery.
LVC: LEAST VALUABLE CUB OF THE FIRST HALF
Aaron Miles. I just hate him so much. Worthless pile of moran droppings. And he's signed thru 2010 at a total cost of $4.9M. further proof Hendry should not sign free agents while he's on a bender.
PLAY OF THE FIRST HALF
Reed "Motherfucking" Johnson robbing Garden Burger of a grand slam. Want a grand slam Prince, then get your ass to Denny's.
NOT-PLAY OF THE FIRST HALF
Has to be Milton forgetting how to count to three, and throwing the ball into the stands with only two outs, allowing a run to score. It's been an interesting three months, hasn't it Milton. Now start hitting!
RECORD
43-43. 27-18 at Wrigley, 16-25 on the road. .500 ball for a team that was expected to dominate the NLC. Go Cubs! Regardless, the whole division is weak, and the Cubs are only 3.5 behind the first-place morans. Milwaukee's in second, 2.5 back, while the Astros are tied with the Cubs at .500. Reds are five off the pace, while the Pirates are fading quickly, 9.5 back. Still anyone's division, except the Pirates.
Cubs schedule for the second half is favourable. 36 Games left at home, 40 away. That's the only bad part, since the Cubs have a bad home/road split this season. Cubs have a lot of games against the Astros, Reds, Pirates, and Nationals, so that's good. They also play a lot against the Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Dodgers, which will be real tests. They don't see the Brewers or Cardinals until September.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT
The Cubs have under-performed and suffered thru a number of injuries, yet still sit at .500 and are only 3.5 out. They have a very legitimate shot at winning the division, but they have to start playing up to their talent level. This couldn't be more apparent than with Soriano and Bradley. Both are all-star level talents, yet they're both hitting like Neifi. Sori's game seems to have fallen completely apart, so it's very hard to predict what he'll do. He went from six-time all-star to replacement level in half a season. Bradley can still take a walk, but his lack of power is troubling. He's improved slowly each month, so let's hope he can keep that going.
Aramis coming back to the lineup is huge. The team struggled without him, as we all witnessed. I still don't expect him to get back to his usual bad-ass self for another couple weeks, but he should be a major contributor down the stretch.
Not sure what Lou's going to do with second, but I expect to see Fonts, Blanco, and baker all to see time there in the second half. If Hendry's going to bring in middle infielders, Lou might as well keep throwing them out there until one sticks or a clear platoon shows.
The rotation is steady, but not without problems. Harden being the biggest one. If they figure out why he's suddenly so hittable, then they'll get him straightened out. If not, it could get ugly. Dempster should be okay when he comes back, and, hopefully, Hart can play #5 starter until then. Lilly, Z, and Wells all seem to be solid right now, doing what they should be doing or even better. Outside of injuries, there is no reason these three shouldn't be able to hold the rotation together.
The pen is shaky, but not hopeless. Gregg really is working out, though Marmol is not. Guzman has stepped-up, and Marshall looks comfortable being a LOOGY right now. Heilman needs to find some control. Having Samardzija step-up and be a bullpen presence would be helpful. Marmol is the key here, as Lou trusts him and he's going to keep using him until Marmol completely implodes. Let's hope Carlos learns how to locate his fastball again.
Overall, the Cubs chances are good. Very good. A lot has gone wrong the first half, and the team is still close in the standings. If the team gets healthy and slackers start producing, then this team could, and should, take off. They should have a run in them, but we'll see. It's been a frustrating season, but hardly a lost one yet. The talent is there, and the team is within striking distance. No excuses Cubs, just play ball.
WEEK AHEAD
Cubs play four in DC against the Nats. No reason they shouldn't take at least three of four. It's expected against the worst team in baseball, even on the road. Harden, Lilly, and Z start the rotation for the Cubs in the second half, and I expect Wells to go Sunday.
GO CUBS! WIN THIS DAMN THING! |
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